• Esben Sloth Andersen, IKE, Aalborg (coordinator);
• Giovanni Dosi, IIASA, Vienna, and "La Sapienza", Rome;
• Gerald Silverberg, MERIT, Maastricht;
• Gisele Umbhauer, BETA, Strasbourg.
  
• Murat Yildizoglu, BETA, Strasbourg.
  

This course gives the research student an understanding concepts, methods and results of evolutionary modelling of technical change and economic dynamics.

The approach of the course is double. On the one hand, different traditions of evolutionary modelling are presented, so that the student can avoid a premature lock-in to a particular tradition. On the other hand, the tendency within the field that each tradition and even each researcher creates an idiosyncratic "artificial economic world" is criticised; instead the advantages of some degree of cumulativeness in evolutionary economic modelling is emphasised in different ways.

At the most general level, cumulativeness may be obtained in the understanding of the general tools of designing and analysing evolutionary models - including the basic elements of evolutionary explanation (mechanisms of transmission, variety-creation and selection), the step-wise refinement of evolutionary models from verbal visions via flow-charts to formal models and computer programs.

At a more concrete level, the cumulativeness and inner dynamics of a few research traditions are dissussed at some length so that the research student can obtain an understanding of the open-ended character of well-known models. Special emphasis is put on a critical analysis of the Nelson and Winter tradition, but we also deal with the development of traditions in more abstract dynamical systems (replicator dynamics) and evolutionary game theory.

During the course 6 PhD students will present their projects, comments will be given by one junior and one senior discussant, and after that there will be a general discussion. The general format is: 25 min PhD presentation, 15 min per discussant (2), 20 min general discussion.

Monday 13 October

9.00-9.15 : Introduction to the week's programme (Esben Sloth ANDERSEN)

9.15-11.15 : Lecture - The starting point: Nelson and Winter-like models of industrial dynamics (Esben Sloth ANDERSEN)

11.30-12.45 : PhD presentation by Peter MULDER (discussants: Koen FRENKEN and Giovanni DOSI)

14.00-15.30 : Lecture - From Nelson and Winter to a full-blown evolutionary research programme (Giovanni DOSI)

16.00-18.00 : Lecture - The structure of stochastic evolutionary models (Giovanni DOSI)

Tuesday 14 October

9.00-10.45 : Lecture - Implementing and extending models in the Nelson and Winter tradition (Esben Sloth ANDERSEN)

11.00-12.15 : PhD presentation by Koen FRENKEN (discussants: Paola GIURI and Gerald SILVERBERG)

14.00-15.30 : Lecture - Dynamical systems and evolutionary economics (Gerald SILVERBERG)

16.00 - 18.00 : Lecture - Extending the Nelson and Winter tradition with a demand side (Giovanni DOSI)

Wednesday 15 October

9.00-12.15 : Lectures - Dynamical systems and evolutionary economics - continued (Gerald SILVERBERG)

14.00 -15.15 : PhD presentation by Asli Gök (discussants: Thierry PAULMIER and Esben Sloth ANDERSEN)

15.30 - 17.30 : Lecture - Summing up on dynamical systems and evolutionary economics (Gerald SILVERBERG)

Thursday 16 October

9.00-10.45 : Lecture - Evolutionary processes in game theory: introduction and applications (Gisele UMBHAUER)

11.00-12.15 : PhD presentation by Giuliana BATTISTI (discussants: Tobias KRETSCHMER and Gisele UMBHAUER)

13.30-15.45 : Lecture - Evolutionary processes in game theory: introduction and applications - continued (Gisele UMBHAUER)

16.00-17.15 : PhD presentation by Marco VALENTE (discussants: Marianne van der STEEN and Gisele UMBHAUER)

Friday 17 October

9.00-10.30 : Lecture - Local interactions in evolutionary dynamics (Murat YILDIZOGLU)

10.45-12.15 : Lecture - Endogeneous evolution of multisectoral economies (Esben Sloth ANDERSEN)

13.30-15.00 : Panel discussion on problems and main results of evolutionary modelling (Esben Sloth ANDERSEN, Gerald SILVERBERG, Gisele UMBHAUER, Murat YILDIZOGLU)

15.30-16.00 : Discussion on the course and the session in general, and of possible improvements (lead by Patrick LLERENA)

Note that several papers are available on the web. These papers are formatted as Adobe Acrobat PDF files. To print or read them, you need a copy of Acrobat reader, which is available free from Adobe: [http://www.adobe.co m/prodindex/acrobat/readstep.html].

Introduction and background

Dosi, G., and Nelson, R.R. (1994), "An Introduction to Evolutionary Theories in Economics", Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Vol. 4, pp. 153-172.

Dosi, G., Freeman, C., Nelson, R.R., Silverberg, G., and Soete, L. (eds.) (1988), Technical Change and Economic Theory, Pinter, London, especially chs. 2, 6, 7, 24, 25, 26.

Silverberg, G. (1994), "Formal Models of Economic Evolution", in Hodgson, G.M., Samuels, W.J., and Tool, M.R. (eds.), The Elgar Companion to Institutional and Evolutionary Economics, Elgar, Aldershot, pp. 213-218. (Ultra-short survey.)

Dosi, G. (1988), "Sources, Procedures and Microeconomic Effects of Innovation", Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 26, pp. 1120-1171. (Modelling seen in relation to the broader field of evolutionary economics.)

Nelson, R.R. (1995), "Recent Evolutionary Theorizing about Economic Change", Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 33, pp. 48-90. (Modelling seen in relation to the broader field of evolutionary economics.)

Andersen, E.S. (1996), Evolutionary Economics: Post-Schumpeterian Contributions, paperback reprint, Pinter, London, especially ch. 1. Extract of the introduction to evolutionary economics is available. Download in PDF format [http://www.business.auc.dk/evolution/esapapers/esa96/EE1.pdf]

Hall, P. (1994), Innovation, Economics and Evolution, Weatsheaf, London. (Provides background information of several of the discussions treated in evolutionary modelling.)

The Nelson and Winter tradition

Nelson, R.R., and Winter, S.G. (1982), An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change, Belknap Press, Cambridge, Mass. and London.

Andersen, E.S. (1996), Evolutionary Economics: Post-Schumpeterian Contributions, paperback reprint, Pinter, London, ch. 4. An extract on Nelson and Winter models is available. Download PDF file [http://www.business.auc.dk/evolution/esapapers/esa96/EE4.pdf]

Silverberg, G. and Verspagen, B. (1994), Economic dynamics and behavioral adaptation: An application to an evolutionary endogenous growth model, MERIT Research Memoranda, 2/94-024. Download PDF file [http://meritbbs.unimaas.nl/rmpdf/rm94_024.pdf]

Silverberg, G. and Verspagen, B. (1995), Evolutionary Theorizing on Economic Growth. MERIT Research Memoranda, 2/95-017. Download PDF file [http://meritbbs.unimaas.nl/rmpdf/rm95_017.pdf]

Programming and simulation in relation to Nelson and Winter models

Andersen, E.S. (1996), Maple V.4 for Evolutionary Modelling [http://www.business.auc.dk/evolution/maple/Intro.html]

• This web page includes links for downloading a set of annotated Maple worksheets that introduce the Maple programming language as well as simple Nelson and Winter models of industrial dynamics. You can download the worksheets for display and print (in PDF formal) as well as for Maple computations. New worksheets will be added successively.

Yildizoglu, M. (1997), Nelson and Winter Model in Java [http://cournot.u-strasbg.fr/yildi/NelWin.htm]

• This web page includes a Java program (an applet) that implements the basic industry dynamics model of Nelson and Winter (1982, part V). It is developped to permit students to "play" with it and learn some basic evolutionary dynamics.

Dynamic systems with special respect to replicator dynamics and artificial life

Silverberg, G. (1988), "Modelling Economic Dynamics and Technical Change: Mathematical Approaches to Self-Organization and Evolution", in Dosi, G., Freeman, C., Nelson, R., Silverberg, G., and Soete, L. (eds.) (1988), Technical Change and Economic Theory, Pinter, London, pp. 531-559.

Lane, D.A. (1993), "Artificial Worlds and Economics", Part I", Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Vol. 3, pp. 89-107.

Lane, D.A. (1993), "Artificial Worlds and Economics", Part II", Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Vol. 3, pp. 177-197.

Tesfatsion, L. (1997), Syllabus of Readings for Artificial Life and Agent-Based Economics [http://www.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/sylalife.htm]

Evolutionary game theory

Kreps, D.M. (1990), Game Theory and Economic Modelling, Clarendon, Oxford.

• Ch. 6 provides a starting point for the topic; the rest of the book is intended to give a taste of what game theory is about and how the evolutionary perspective may solve a kind of crisis.

Umbhauer, G. (1993), "Evolution and Forward Induction in Game Theory", Revue Internationale de Systemique, Vol. 7, pp. 613-626.

Lindgren, K. (1996), Evolutionary of Behavious in the Prisoner's Dilemma, Paper presented to the International Schumpeter Society Conference, Stockholm 3-5 June 1996, Institute of Physical Resource Theory, Chalmers University of Technology and Gothenburg University.

• If you like to know of the many kinds of simulation models that can be used in exploring the Prisoner's Dilemma, you should get this paper. Download PDF file [http://www.business.auc.dk/evolution/courses/Lindgren.pdf] - unfortunately this copy is without the papers heavy illustrations; comments and further requests should be sent by email to Kristian Lindgren]

Weibull, J.W. (1995), Evolutionary Game Theory, MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass.

• If you have had a good deal of game theory and like formal presentations, you should consult this book.

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